Founding spots close at launch · December 2026
Bets. Polls. People.One honest number.
Join free and earn Precision Tokens for every poll you take and every friend you bring.
- Take pollsTokens for each one
- Answer honestlyTruth bonus up to 2×
- Invite friendsTokens when they verify
We put what traders bet on Kalshi, Polymarket and PredictIt beside the poll average and our verified member panel, then fold it all into one forecast for every race that matters. Every weight published.
Founding spots close when we launch in December 2026. Claim yours now and start earning tokens from day one.
The 2026 midterms · November 3
Every race, every source, side by side
Pick a ballot. Each race shows Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt and the poll average next to our combined number.
Live map
The 2026 Senate, state by state
Every Senate seat on the ballot, colored by our combined number: darker means surer, dashed means still in play. Below the map, the markets’ odds on who controls each chamber.
Open the Senate board →2026 Senate map · Precision Combined
Live17Lean R
18Lean D
6Under 65%
Darker = surerUnder 65%, still in play
Senate control
Dem 62% −166
House control
Dem 90% −862
U.S. Senate
Senate races
Every seat on the ballot, plus a projected chamber from race-by-race odds.
See Senate races →Statehouses
Governor races
Open seats, incumbents and toss-ups across the states.
See governor races →U.S. House
House battlegrounds
The districts most likely to decide the House majority.
See House races →What we do
Three ways of reading America, folded into one
Every source misses sometimes. Markets react fast but can be thin. Polls ask voters directly but lag. Our members add a third view. We weigh all three in the open.
01
LivePrediction markets
Live prices from Kalshi, Polymarket and PredictIt: where people put real money.
02
LiveThe polls
The average of public polls for each race, refreshed as new surveys come in.
03
Coming Dec 2026Our members
A panel of verified Americans, paid to answer our own polls. Not in the number yet.
A bonus if your answer was more common than members predicted. That is how we pay for honesty, not just for finishing. How it works
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Precision Combined
Today: markets + polls. From December 2026: markets + polls + members. One win chance per race, every weight published.
Why we're built to be more accurate
No single source has the whole picture. Together they come closer.
Three decades of studies find election markets often beat the polls, and that averaging independent forecasts cancels out their separate mistakes. That's the idea behind the Precision Combined number: blend the sources, publish the weights, and let the results be checked.
Research
Do markets beat polls?
What thirty years of studies found, where markets win, and where they've missed.
Read the research →Methodology
The Precision Funnel™, in the open
Every source weighted by its evidence in each race, with the weights and reasons on every page.
See the method →Standards
Ethics and disclosure
How we handle sources, sponsors and corrections.
Our standards →Accountability
How we'll be scored
Every forecast saved daily and graded in public after the votes are counted.
See the scorecard →Data desk
The raw feeds, if you want to dig in
Everything behind the combined number is on the site, with the source credited.
Latest polls
New public polls
The newest national and state polls as they're released.
See latest polls →Prediction markets
Market dashboard
Political odds across Polymarket, Kalshi and PredictIt.
See the markets →Averages
Poll averages
Transparent averages on the ballot, the mood and top issues.
See averages →Issues
Issue research
The economy, public safety, education and more: what we'll measure first.
See the issues →Precision Tokens
Join free. Take polls. Bring friends. Earn Precision Tokens for all three.
Founding members earn Precision Tokens from the day they join: for verifying, for every member poll they complete, and for every friend who joins with their invite link and verifies. After launch, verified members are also paid for each poll they complete. The founding-member window closes at launch in December 2026, so join before then.
- 1
Join the list
Sign up with your email now. Confirm when pre-registration opens in early November.
- 2
Take the Founding Poll
Verify you're a U.S. adult and answer our first member poll. Truth bonus: up to 2× the poll tokens, scored after the poll closes. Cash reward is paid either way.
- 3
Invite friends
Share your invite link. You earn tokens for each friend who joins and verifies, and they earn tokens too. One level only: you never earn on their invites.
Claim your founding spot and start earning
We’ll send one email when pre-registration opens.
Management’s intent
It is the intent of management to issue an initial set of up to 100 million Precision Tokens (10% of total supply), with a limit of 50,000 per member, to founding members who verify and complete surveys and polls (proposed, subject to counsel). That initial pool is limited and does not grow. Management's goal is to file the token offering with the SEC on or before March 31, 2027.
We are not asking for money or anything else of value, and if any is sent we will not accept it. No offer to buy securities can be accepted, and no part of any purchase price can be received, unless and until an offering statement is filed and qualified by the SEC. Any indication of interest involves no obligation or commitment of any kind.
These are forward-looking statements of management's current intent, not guarantees. They depend on counsel, regulatory review and market conditions and may change. Nothing on this site is an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or token. Full forward-looking statements and Rule 255 notice.
Precision Tokens are a record of founding-member rewards. During pre-registration they are locked: they cannot be sold, transferred or redeemed and have no cash value. Any future way to redeem or trade them would come only through an offering made under U.S. securities law, which may never happen. Reward amounts and rules may change before launch. Nothing on this site is an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security.
Company
Who we are and how to work with us
About us
Independent, and new on purpose
Why we're building a forecast that blends markets, polls and a paid American panel.
Read our story →For organizations
Custom research
Message testing, tracking and custom studies once our panel is live.
See services →Contact
Talk to our team
Press, partnerships, data collaboration or general questions.
Get in touch →Now
Race Center live with combined odds for every tracked race
Early November 2026
Founding-member pre-registration opens
December 2026
Member panel launches with our first paid polls